Data-Driven Determination

The science behind the Detroit Lions’s strategy

—By Ryan Esker

It was impossible to hear in Levi Stadium. The Detroit Lions trailed the San Francisco 49ers 24-27 with eight minutes remaining in the NFC championship game. Quarterback Jared Goff led the team down to the thirty-yard line but the Lions now faced a crucial fourth down. They could either attempt to kick a 48-yard field goal to tie the game, or they could attempt to extend the drive. Dan Campbell, the Lions head coach, did not hesitate. With the game on the line, he opted to go for it on fourth down.

Unfortunately, Campbell’s gamble did not pay off. Goff’s pass fell incomplete and the 49ers took the ball, ultimately winning 34-31. Earlier in the game Campbell faced a similar scenario, where he opted to go for it on fourth and two instead of attempting a 46-yard field goal; that attempt failed as well, and in a game where the Lions only lost by three points, coach Campbell was criticized for leaving six points on the board.

Coach Campbell’s choices during the Lions’ pivotal game were not mere hunches, but the result of detailed strategic evaluations, drawing from extensive analytics, including player performance, historical data, and situational evaluations. The analytics department of the Detroit Lions serves a complex ecosystem of information, expertise, and calculated risk, shaping the decision-making process at every level of the organization. 

“The analytics department plays a critical role on both the football and business side for the organization,” says Emily Esker, who is my sister and had the opportunity to work alongside the Lions’ analytics team through an internship. Esker’s insights from her time with the Lions offer a unique perspective into the complex approach that the team employs. According to Esker, “The analytics team meets every week with Coach Dan Campbell to discuss game scenarios.” For these meetings, the analytics team prepares models and strategies for nearly every scenario. They utilize player data, past games, and a variety of statistics to create models that can predict outcomes for various crucial in game decisions, such as going for it, or kicking a field goal.

For Campbell, his gamble in the NFC championship appears to be more calculated. According to SBNation, models such as the ones created by the Lions’ analytics team suggest that Campbell should have gone for it, as it offered a slight (+0.3%) increase in the team’s chances of winning. The calculated approach to crucial decisions, underscored by analytics, demonstrates the evolution of football strategy, where data combines with coaching intuition. 

When Coach Campbell speaks into his headset and looks down at his playsheet in the high-stress moments of a game, his decisions might appear to be informed by real-time data from these models, but that is not the case. According to Esker, “The NFL actually prohibits models and programs from being used during an NFL game. They can prepare as much as they would like throughout the week, but when the time comes in a game it is the head coach making a decision based on his intuition.” The analytics team watches the game from the skybox, but they have no communication with the sideline or the head coach. This separation emphasizes the critical role of pre-game preparation for the analytics team, as their insights must be effectively communicated and understood by the coaching staff ahead of time. Ensuring that Coach Campbell and his staff are aligned with the analytic team’s findings before kickoff is crucial, as it allows them to make informed decisions once the game begins. 

While the NFL prohibits actively utilizing models and programs from being utilized during a game, its partnership with Zebra Technologies demonstrates a strong commitment to analytics. As described by Opta Analyst, by integrating RFID technology into the shoulder pads of each player, the NFL has enhanced its ability to track and analyze player movements, providing valuable data for developing team strategies and player evaluations. 

Even though the Lions’ season is over, work is just getting started for the analytics team. According to Esker, “The offseason is just as busy as the regular season, as they prepare for the NFL draft.” The analytics team is currently working on building profiles for all of their potential draft picks, seeing how they compare against previous draft picks with similar statistics. In the 2023 NFL draft, the Lions received extensive criticism for their draft picks, with USA Today describing the Lions’ first two as, “One befuddling pick begets another, apparently.” 

Despite the critiques, the Lions’ analytics team played a crucial role in these selections, relying on detailed statistical comparisons to make informed choices that may not have been visible to outside observers. This data-driven approach to drafting paid off, as the players selected played a major role in the Lions’ NFC championship run. The Lions’ first pick, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, scored a touchdown in every single playoff game, and tight end Sam LaPorta also greatly contributed to the team’s success. 

As the NFL and the Detroit Lions continue to embrace analytics, the essence of the game remains rooted in the unpredictable nature of human decision making. Despite sophisticated data models and statistical analyses that inform strategies and draft decisions, the critical moments in football still come down to the human instincts and decisions made on the field. The Lions’ approach, blending comprehensive analytics with Coach Campbell’s intuitions, exemplifies this modern balance in sports strategy. Esker’s insight captures this sentiment, reflecting on the future of analytics in the NFL, “I don’t think the NFL will ever allow the use of applications and models during a game. It will continue to come down to what team can prepare and gameplan for the head coach the best.” The human element in sports is irreplaceable, affirming that no matter how advanced analytics become, the unpredictable, split-second decisions made by coaches and players will always be at the heart of the game.

(Feature Photo of Detroit Lions watch party, taken by Ryan Esker)